Read us and find out Our Fundamental Outlook For The Gold In The Next 12 Months.
We think heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven investment, and (in the long run) decreasing mine supply could lead to a tighter market. Other developments, including the Covid-19 global health pandemic and trade disputes between the U.S. and China, have enhanced risks associated with economic growth and geopolitical events, further supporting prices. Gold’s role as a hedge against inflation is also an important focus for investors, as major governments continue to stimulate economies with quantitative easing. Central banks have been cutting interest rates and injecting more money into economies with an insatiable demand for easy money. Typically such an economic environment will eventually lead to higher inflation, a positive backdrop for gold fundamentals. In recent years leading up to 2020, central banks purchases had been the largest contributor to demand growth. However, gold-backed ETFs led to significant demand growth in 2020. According to Metals Focus and World Gold Council, inflows into gold-backed ETFs (through the first 11 months of 2020) hit new records in both tonnes and U.S. dollar terms. Despite a net outflow in November 2020 (the first net outflow in 12 months), goldbacked ETFs recorded a year-to-date net inflow of 916 tonnes (through November 2020), significantly above the highest level of full-year annual ETF inflows (646 tonnes in 2009). In 2020, gold posted its best return since 2010, ending the year up 25%. The gold price has now appreciated 17 out of the past 20 years, or 85% of the time. In August 2020, gold hit its all-time high of nearly $2,070 per ounce, amid unprecedented amounts of quantitative easing and negativeyielding debt. The U.S. money supply (M1 supply) surged by 66% in 2020, significantly above the long-term average growth rate of 6%.
We expect gold prices will trade above $2100/oz. during the next 12 monts and the year-over-year pricing, tailwind should drive record cash flow for gold miners.
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